A softer US CPI number could end monetary tightening and exert downward pressure on the greenback.
Recent dollar weakness is due to declining Treasury rates and rising bond prices due to the Fed’s softer stance on rate hikes.
Fed officials pointed to uncertainties around the economy, oil prices and financial markets as supporting “the case for proceeding carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate”, according to the minutes released on Wednesday from the Sept 19-20 meeting. “This is a reminder that the last mile of the fight against inflation is going to be a tough one,” said Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets, North America at Validus Risk Management.
“On the flip side, an upside surprise will likely encourage markets to reprice higher the chance the Federal Open Market Committee will follow through on its projected 25 basis point hike.”
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