However, a strong labour market supports economic demand, raising the US Fed’s year-end rate hike risks.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have climbed by 170,000 last month, following an increase of 187,000 in August.
“While payroll growth is much slower than in previous years, it doesn’t look like it’s falling off a cliff,” said Nick Bunker, research director at the Indeed Hiring Lab in Tampa, Florida. “If we see another number in excess of 100,000 jobs a month, that’s another sign that the labour market is moderating, but continues to have a lot of strength and resilience.”
“Hiring typically picks up at the start of the summer vacation season, but rising initial jobless claims in the first few weeks of June was an early signal hiring was not quite as strong as in a usual year,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York. No boost was expected from the end of a months-long strike by Hollywood actors, which resulted in a decrease of 17,000 jobs in the motion picture and sound recording industries in August, as it happened outside the survey period.
Wages are still rising faster than the 3.5% pace that economists say is consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. But as fewer people quit their jobs in search of greener pastures, wage growth could moderate. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
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