Pause or hike? ECB’s rate decision on a knife edge

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Pause or hike? ECB’s rate decision on a knife edge
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A ‘complicated mixed bag’ of data impedes decision-making amid still-high inflation and a darkening eurozone.

The European Central Bank has raised rates by 4.25 percentage points since July last year to combat runaway consumer prices.

The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already lifted rates by 4.25 percentage points since July last year to combat runaway consumer prices. Latest data showed eurozone second-quarter growth reached just 0.1%, lower than previously estimated, while a recent survey pointed to the economy contracting at its fastest rate in three years as a manufacturing slowdown spread to services.

Consumer price rises came in unchanged at 5.3% in August, way above the ECB’s 2% target, although closely-watched core inflation — excluding volatile energy and food prices — eased a little. Other analysts, however, are betting on a pause on Thursday, although they also think the ECB might then impose one final hike at a later meeting.

In the run-up to the meeting, they have mostly been cagey about what will happen, a contrast to other recent meetings where the decision was usually well telegraphed in advance.Governing council member Peter Kazimir called for another 25-basis-point hike, with the Slovak central bank chief writing in an op-ed it is “better to be safe than sorry”.

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